I highly recommend listening to this session.

I sat down with Stephen Leuchtman, a polling expert hailing from Montana. Stephen, who has deep roots in rural areas like Montana and Detroit, shared insights on political dynamics often misunderstood by outsiders. With ongoing polling and recent political debates stirring the waters, he brought his insider perspective on issues that resonate deeply with Montana voters. Here’s a recap of their engaging dialogue.

Montana Politics Beyond the Stereotypes

Stephen quickly addressed a common misconception: while Montana votes Republican at the presidential level, the state’s core values lean libertarian—think, “Don’t tread on me, and I won’t tread on you.” This perspective has led to progressive outcomes on specific issues, such as marijuana legalization and maintaining pro-choice rights. Despite stereotypes of conservatism, Montana’s political identity is complex and resistant to simple labels.

Jennifer and Stephen discussed Montana’s abortion-related ballot initiative, CI-128, which recently polled at a striking 63% in favor of maintaining access. Stephen pointed out that while national discourse might paint Montana as a conservative stronghold, the state’s support for individual rights remains robust. For example, Jon Tester, Montana’s three-term Democratic senator, currently leads in polling by three points against Tim Sheehy, a political outsider.

Abortion, Personal Freedom, and the Changing Landscape

The conversation turned to abortion laws, where Stephen’s polling experience highlighted a consistent trend: the American public generally supports reproductive rights, with 65% standing behind Roe v. Wade before it was overturned.

He explained how his data, stretching back to 2006, tracked public opinion across swing states. “If given a choice, many would support a compromise around 15-17 weeks,” he said, noting that such a policy might have staved off the divisive fallout from the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

This decision, which eliminated federal protections for abortion, triggered restrictive laws across various states. Stephen highlighted the impact: “Counties in states like Idaho and Wyoming are losing obstetricians because doctors are reluctant to practice under harsh abortion restrictions.” For Montana, where abortion access remains intact, the state’s historical pro-choice stance showcases the value residents place on personal freedoms.

Trans Rights, Immigration, and Social Issues in Focus

The discussion shifted to social issues often used as political flashpoints, such as transgender rights in sports and immigration. Stephen pointed out that while these topics capture national attention, they rarely reflect local realities.

As Utah Governor Spencer Cox observed, these “edge cases” affect very few people, yet they’re often sensationalized to polarize voters. This approach has created what Stephen calls “an atmosphere of intimidation,” detracting from Montana’s live-and-let-live ethos.

Splitting the Ticket: Montana’s Independent Voters

One takeaway from Stephen’s data is the nuance of Montana voters who split their tickets. For example, while some Montanans may support Trump at the presidential level, they might vote for liberal Supreme Court justices or for preserving abortion rights at the state level.

Stephen explained, “People outside the state see Montana as a unified block, but on the ground, it’s clear that voters are more pragmatic and issue-driven.”

Betting on Change: Stephen’s Optimistic Outlook

Before wrapping up, Jennifer and Stephen shared a light-hearted moment discussing betting odds on political outcomes. Stephen noted he’s placed a significant wager on Tester’s success. “If it works out, I’m looking at a fivefold return!” he laughed. Montana’s political landscape is unpredictable, meaning anything could happen, but Stephen is betting on a continued show of independence from Montana voters.

Like many states, Montana defies stereotypes, unexpectedly balancing individual liberties with progressive values. As the election season ends, Stephen’s perspective offers a grounded view on the political currents shaping Montana, proving that there’s always more than meets the eye in politics.